AMAZON: Tipping Elements, Irreversibility, and Abrupt Change

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22 March 2022 17:00 CET

Forest dieback & potential tipping elements

Join AIMES, Earth Commission, Future Earth and the WCRP Safe Landing Climates Lighthouse Activity for the Amazon focused webinar in a series that aims to advance the knowledge about tipping elements, irreversibility, and abrupt changes in the Earth system. The event includes two presentations on potential tipping of the Amazon and forest dieback in latest Earth System model runs (MIRO Board).

Presentations

Is the Amazon Rainforest near a Tipping Point? – Carlos Nobre
Amazon Forest dieback in CMIP6 Earth System Models – Peter Cox
Q&A/ Discussion

Moderated by Patricia Pinho (Institute of Advanced Studies) and Tim Lenton (University of Exeter).

The event recording is provided below.

Visit the Amazon Miro Board to see questions workshopped during the webinar.

Back to overview of the full series.

All you need to know

This event is part of a series of online discussions aims to advance the knowledge about tipping elements, irreversibility, and abrupt changes in the Earth system. It supports efforts to increase consistency in treatment of tipping elements in the scientific community, develop a research agenda, and design joint experiments and ideas for a Tipping Element Model Intercomparison Project (TipMip).

This discussion series is a joint activity of the Analysis, Integration, and Modeling of the Earth System (AIMES) global research project of Future Earth, the Earth Commission Working Group 1 Earth and Human Systems Intercomparison Modelling Project (EHSMIP) under the Global Commons Alliance and the Safe Landing Climates Lighthouse Activity of World Climate Research Program (WCRP).

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Speakers

Prof. Carlos Nobrel
Institute for Advanced Studies, University of São Paulo

Professor Carlos Nobrel dedicated his scientific carrier mostly to Amazonian and climate science at Brazil’s National Institutes of Amazonian Research (INPA) and Space Research (INPE). He proposed almost 30 years ago the hypothesis of Amazon ‘savannization’ in response to deforestation. He is a former National Secretary of R&D of Ministry of Science and Technology of Brazil and former President of the Federal Agency for Post-Graduate Education (CAPES). Prof Nobrel is presently a senior researcher with the Institute for Advanced Studies, University of São Paulo.

Prof. Peter Cox
Climate System Dynamics in Mathematics at the University of Exeter

Peter Cox is Professor of Climate System Dynamics in Mathematics at the University of Exeter. A lead-author on the last three Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4, AR5, AR6) and a highly-cited author in Geosciences. Prof Cox previously worked at the Met Office-Hadley Centre and the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology.

Organized by

Analysis, Integration, and Modeling of the Earth System (AIMES)

The Analysis, Integration, and Modeling of the Earth System (AIMES) project is an international network of Earth system scientists and scholars that seek to develop innovative, interdisciplinary ways to understand the complexity of the natural world and its interactions with human activities. AIMES is a global research project of Future Earth.

WCRP Safe Landing Climates Lighthouse Activity.

The Safe Landing Climates Lighthouse Activity is an exploration of the routes to “safe landing” spaces for human and natural systems. It will explore future pathways that avoid dangerous climate change while at the same time contributing to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including those of climate action, zero hunger, clean water and sanitation, good health and well-being, affordable and clean energy, and healthy ecosystems above and below water. The relevant time scale is multi-decadal to millennial.

Earth Commission

The Earth Commission is a major scientific assessment, hosted by Future Earth, to define a safe and just corridor for people and planet. The Commission will inform the creation of science-based targets, the “1.5-degree equivalents”, to help maintain and protect critical global commons – our shared climate, land, biodiversity, freshwater, atmosphere and oceans. The Earth Commission is an international team of leading natural and social scientists and five working groups of additional experts. It forms the scientific cornerstone of the Global Commons Alliance.

World Climate Research Programme

The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) leads the way in addressing frontier scientific questions related to the coupled climate system — questions that are too large and too complex to be tackled by a single nation, agency or scientific discipline. Through international science coordination and partnerships, WCRP contributes to advancing our understanding of the multi-scale dynamic interactions between natural and social systems that affect climate.

Future Earth

Future Earth is a global network of scientists, researchers, and innovators collaborating for a more sustainable planet. Future Earth initiates and supports international collaboration between researchers and stakeholders to identify and generate the integrated knowledge needed for successful transformations towards societies that provide good and fair lives for all within a stable and resilient Earth system. Future Earth is the host of the Earth Commission.